Well guys, here we are-- right smack dab in the middle of one of the worst winters in recent memory. Myself, I've been cycling back and forth between winter-mode and spring-mode, trying to get up and ski whenever conditions warrant, but also taking advantage of the ample mid-winter sunshine we've been getting in the Seattle area. Throughout this ski season, I've tried my best to maintain a sense of optimism, thinking that we're forever only a storm away, and that if all else fails: There's always March! Even in 2004-05, "the bad year" as we've lovingly dubbed it, March delivered, right??Read on, and we'll take a look at the WA Cascades weather forecast for the next week, and beyond, regarding ski conditions.
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| Is a 100" March out of the question this year? Not entirely, but "The Blob" of high pressure sitting off our coast would either need to degrade, or move south-- thereby opening us up to favorable northern stream moisture... and effectively ending the winter season for our friends in the Lake Tahoe area that are lucky enough to still be skiing! |
The models are still inconsistent regarding the impact of the forecasted Sun-Tues system. Things have trended drier... It would seem that the best chance for some snowfall would be in the Central/Southern Cascades on Monday afternoon-- the most "optimistic" run is showing a bit of convergence activity coming off of Vancouver Island that could result in a quick shot of a few inches, though it should be noted that this scenario is an outlier and its more likely that we'll see only clouds and trace precipitation while the majority of available moisture will skirt the coast and northwest slopes of the Olympic Mountains... by Tuesday afternoon we're looking at clear, sunny skies, colder (much colder) nights, and seasonably average temps in general.
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| Screenshot taken from this morning's NAM run of 3hr precipitation for 1pm, Monday 3/2. The slide prior (10am) showed lighter, but more widespread precipitation, however, this particular slide shows the potential for moderate convergence activity coming off of Vancouver Island and impacting the west slope of the central Cascades. Personally, I don't see this playing out, but cross your fingers... |
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| This is this morning's GFS run for 4am precipitation, Monday. Here, moisture comes in faster, lighter, and farther south-- less than ideal for our focus on the central Cascades. |
The morning run of yesterday's long GFS run offered quite the scare, showing a plume of southern stream moisture tracking all the way to Hawaii aiming straight at us sometime in the Friday PM / Saturday AM ... This scenario very well could be the endgame for our ski-season if it were to play out. HOWEVER, none of today's runs are showing this, and instead keep that moisture west of the ridge (still) sitting off our coast-- whew... but something to keep an eye on, nonetheless. It seems more likely that we'll be clipped by another system floating over the top of the ridge and into B.C., offering similar weather to what we saw over the last few days-- a showery regime with temps in the 30s and freezing levels at or near pass-level. If this plays out as I'm hedging, the North Cascades (Mt. Baker), could see a decent punch late Friday night into Saturday, less in the central/south... But, a lot can change in a week!
What about March, you ask?
The latest climate analysis seems to suggest that the persistent ridging that's been impacting our weather all winter... *sigh* ... may continue. Not to get too technical here, I'll just say that the ridge has weakened, some. It's not as static as it was even two weeks ago, and if it drifts a bit to the south for us, we could get pretty lucky. Heck, if we got really lucky, it could break down all together-- the skeptic in me says this is unlikely. Sorry. In general, though, the WA Cascades will be looking at average (or slightly below average) temps with below average precip... this outlook could be worse. I'd even go out on a limb and tell you that our chances for mountain rain will diminish, and whatever precipitation we do get over the coming weeks should be coming in as snow... The big dogs back east making these calls have given us the almighty broad brush-- which means even they're not confident which way our weather is going to turn. Maybe they're just more focused on New England? Meteorologically speaking, they are having a much more interesting winter-- thanks to our damn ridge. It's all connected.
Hopefully you've found this interesting, useful, and-- god forbid-- somewhat entertaining. Until next week: Cheers, ski bums!
What about March, you ask?
The latest climate analysis seems to suggest that the persistent ridging that's been impacting our weather all winter... *sigh* ... may continue. Not to get too technical here, I'll just say that the ridge has weakened, some. It's not as static as it was even two weeks ago, and if it drifts a bit to the south for us, we could get pretty lucky. Heck, if we got really lucky, it could break down all together-- the skeptic in me says this is unlikely. Sorry. In general, though, the WA Cascades will be looking at average (or slightly below average) temps with below average precip... this outlook could be worse. I'd even go out on a limb and tell you that our chances for mountain rain will diminish, and whatever precipitation we do get over the coming weeks should be coming in as snow... The big dogs back east making these calls have given us the almighty broad brush-- which means even they're not confident which way our weather is going to turn. Maybe they're just more focused on New England? Meteorologically speaking, they are having a much more interesting winter-- thanks to our damn ridge. It's all connected.
Hopefully you've found this interesting, useful, and-- god forbid-- somewhat entertaining. Until next week: Cheers, ski bums!
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